Zero-Trust Gateway Stream (Kalshi / Polymarket)
Zero-Allocation Filter [politics/elections]
kalshi Sanitized
PRES-2024-NAT
Harris51.8%
Bid: 51¢Ask: 52¢$3420k vol
polymarket Sanitized
PRES-2024-PA
Democrat50.9%
Bid: 50¢Ask: 51¢$1850k vol
kalshi Sanitized
PRES-2024-MI
Democrat52.6%
Bid: 52¢Ask: 53¢$1200k vol
polymarket Sanitized
PRES-2024-WI
Democrat51.2%
Bid: 50¢Ask: 52¢$980k vol
270 Electoral College Battleground Engine
Real-time state tipping-point probabilities and simulated state winners
276 Dem|270 to Win|262 GOP
276 EV
270
262 EV
PA19 EV
DEM +0.9%
Mkt Implied:52%
MI15 EV
DEM +2.6%
Mkt Implied:53%
WI10 EV
DEM +1.2%
Mkt Implied:52%
GA16 EV
GOP +0.8%
Mkt Implied:49%
AZ11 EV
GOP +1.1%
Mkt Implied:48%
NV6 EV
DEM +1.4%
Mkt Implied:52%
NC16 EV
GOP +1.5%
Mkt Implied:48%
Policy Sandbox & Shock Sliders
Suburban Turnout Delta0%
-30%0% (Baseline)+30%
Economic Shock Factor0.00
-1.0 (Recession)0.0+1.0 (Boom)
Youth (18-29) Turnout Swing0%
-30%0%+30%
Inflation & Cost of Living Pressure0%
DeflationNeutralHigh CPI
Rural Voter Surge0%
-30%0%+30%
Dual-Axis Probabilistic Forecast: Polling Prior vs Market Posterior
Compares static baseline demographic priors against dynamic live prediction market updates (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Prior (Dem %) Market-Adjusted Posterior
A2A Synthetic Electorate Network
Simulates peer-to-peer opinion cascades & belief re-evaluations across small-world ties
Agent Deliberation & Thought Stream
PA
voter-pa-001[LLM_INFERENCE]54% → 56%
Observed Democratic margin strengthening in Pennsylvania suburban polling (+1.8%); consolidated preference around healthcare security.
Turnout Intent: 84%Bayesian Micro-Adjustment
MI
voter-mi-002[COGNITIVE_HEURISTIC]88% → 89%
Labor union updates in Detroit indicate high mobilization; turnout intention reinforced.
Turnout Intent: 76%Bayesian Micro-Adjustment
AZ
voter-az-003[COGNITIVE_HEURISTIC]49% → 48%
Expressed concern regarding interest rates and small-business credit costs in Maricopa County.
Turnout Intent: 67%Bayesian Micro-Adjustment
MRP Demographic Stratification Matrix
Vectorized Polars poststratification cells with Bayesian updated vote shares
| Cell ID | State / Strata | Age / Edu / Race | Pop Weight | Turnout | Prior Dem | Bayesian Post | 95% HDI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cell-PA-001 | PASuburban | 18-29 · College+ · White | 4.2% | 68% | 61.2% | 62.8%(+1.6%) | [58%, 67%] |
| cell-PA-002 | PARural | 45-64 · Non-College · White | 8.5% | 76% | 28.5% | 27.9%(-0.6%) | [24%, 32%] |
| cell-MI-001 | MISuburban | 30-44 · College+ · White | 5.1% | 72% | 56.5% | 57.8%(+1.3%) | [53%, 62%] |
| cell-MI-002 | MIUrban | 45-64 · Non-College · Black | 6.2% | 65% | 89.2% | 90.1%(+0.9%) | [86%, 94%] |
| cell-WI-001 | WIUrban | 18-29 · College+ · White | 3.8% | 64% | 72.0% | 73.2%(+1.2%) | [69%, 77%] |
| cell-GA-001 | GASuburban | 30-44 · College+ · Black | 5.8% | 78% | 86.5% | 87.1%(+0.6%) | [83%, 91%] |
| cell-AZ-001 | AZSuburban | 30-44 · Non-College · Hispanic | 6.4% | 61% | 54.0% | 53.5%(-0.5%) | [49%, 58%] |